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국제학술지

공지 (2025. 10. 28.)

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Critical contribution of moisture to the air quality deterioration in a warm and humid weather

Abstract: The deterioration of air quality that threatens human health is recognized as focal compound hazard. Here, decisive thermodynamic conditions for activation of secondary aerosol formation have been investigated focused on Korea. In a dry environment with relative humidity < 60%, gas phase reaction to form fine particles depended largely on surface temperature. In a wet environment (relative humidity ≥ 60%), however, aqueous phase reaction of secondary inorganic aerosols, which are sulfate, nitrate, and ammonium, accounting for 67% of the total aerosol mass, was more activated. Thus, humidity is as important as temperature in the secondary production of aerosol; air quality often worsened when a low-pressure system was predominant over the Korean Peninsula. It is rather different from the general synoptic conditions of high concentrations of particulate matters characterized by high pressure and atmospheric stagnation. This study suggests additional favorable condition and responsible mechanism of air quality hazards that may be frequent in future.
- 작성자Choi et al.
- 작성일2024.09.04
- 조회수94
- 2023
Ineffective implementation of emergency reduction measures against high concentrations of particulate matter in Seoul...

Abstract: Since December 30, 2017, the Seoul Metropolitan Government, Republic of Korea, has been implementing emergency reduction measures (ERMs) restricting the operation of industrial sites, thermal power plants, and vehicles when air quality is expected to deteriorate. ERMs are implemented when the present observed concentration of particulate matter (PM) of aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) and/or the predicted values for the following day exceed a threshold value. In this study, the effectiveness of ERMs was evaluated for 33 days with and 6 days without ERM implementation but where the PM2.5 concentration exceeded the threshold value, until March 15, 2021. Of the 33 days of ERM implementation, on 7 days it was executed despite the thresholds not being met. The ERM on these days might have been properly executed because the pre-notice and implementation of ERM might have reduced the local emissions of air pollutants. Our major findings are that even on days of ERM implementation, there were marginal reductions in vehicle traffic, thermal power generation, and industrial emissions. Second, the concentrations of PM2.5 and related air pollutants in Seoul were almost unchanged for most ERM implementation episodes. Third, most of the 39 (= 33 + 6) days when the air quality worsened were caused by the transboundary transport of air pollutants from China. In conclusion, it was revealed that the currently executed ERM law is insufficient for effectively reducing PM2.5. To achieve the required reductions, it is necessary to undertake stricter policies in Seoul and its neighboring regions. Full title: Ineffective implementation of emergency reduction measures against high concentrations of particulate matter in Seoul, Republic of Korea
- 작성자Ho and Kim
- 작성일2024.09.04
- 조회수79
- 2023
Major decisive factors of tropical cyclone risk in the Republic of Korea: Intensity, track, and extratropical transition

Abstract: After the catastrophic damage caused by the extratropical transitioned North Atlantic hurricane Sandy (2012), the decaying stage of a tropical cyclone (TC) have received more attention. TC undergoing extratropical transition (ET) in mid-latitudes may become hazardous with torrential rain and violent wind over a vast area. In this study, a decision tree analysis was applied to evaluate the relative importance of TC parameters such as intensity category, entry location, and distance from coastlines, in determining damage occurrence. All 123 landfalling TCs in the Republic of Korea (hereafter Korea) during 1979–2015 were analyzed. The results reveal that intense TCs (severe tropical storms and typhoons) incur damages regardless of entry location and distance from coastlines. TCs with tropical storm intensity are expected to incur damages only when they approach the southwest of the Korean Peninsula. Weak TC with maximum wind speeds smaller than 17 m s−1 does not have the potential to incur damages unless the TC was undergoing extratropical transition (ET) during landfall in Korea. ET storms that make a landfall approaching 1.22° (~130 km) to the coastline cause substantial damages especially in the west coast and capital area of Korea. The present results suggest that accurate forecasting that also considers ET, and not only intensity and track, is essential for successful disaster risk mitigation.
- 작성자Nam et al.
- 작성일2024.09.04
- 조회수51
- 2023
PM2.5 forecast in Korea using the long short-term memory (LSTM) model

Abstract: The National Institute of Environmental Research, under the Ministry of Environment of Korea, provides two-day forecasts, through AirKorea, of the concentration of particulate matter with diameters of ≤ 2.5 μm (PM2.5) in terms of four grades (low, moderate, high, and very high) over 19 districts nationwide. Particulate grades are subjectively designated by human forecasters based on forecast results from the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) and artificial intelligence (AI) models in conjunction with weather patterns. This study evaluates forecasts from the long short-term memory (LSTM) algorithm relative to those from CMAQ-solely and AirKorea using observations from 2019. The skills of the one-day PM2.5 forecasts over the 19 districts were 39–70% for CMAQ, 72–79% for LSTM, and 73–80% for AirKorea; the AI forecasts showed comparable skills to the human forecasters at AirKorea. The one-day forecast skill levels of high and very high PM2.5 pollution grades are 31–98%, 31–74%, and 39–81% for the CMAQ-solely, the LSTM, and the AirKorea forecasts, respectively. Despite good skills for forecasting the high and very high events, CMAQ-solely forecasts also generate substantially higher false alarm rates (up to 86%) than the LSTM and AirKorea forecasts (up to 58%). Hence, applying only the LSTM model to the CMAQ forecasts can yield reasonable forecast skill levels comparable to the operational AirKorea forecasts that elaborately combine the CMAQ model, AI models, and human forecasters. The present results suggest that applications of appropriate AI models can greatly enhance PM2.5 forecast skills for Korea in a more objective way.
- 작성자Ho et al.
- 작성일2024.09.04
- 조회수121
- 2023
Rainfall strength and area from landfalling TCs over the North Indian and WNP oceans under increased CO2 conditions

Abstract: Climate change due to greenhouse gases has fueled more intense tropical cyclones (TCs) globally. However, the characteristics rainfall strength (RS) and rainfall area (RA) of TCs and their future changes in regional scales are not yet fully understood. Here, using ultra-high-resolution coupled model simulations, we investigate the dominant factors which control rainfall characteristics of landfalling TCs in the North Indian Ocean (NIO) and western-North Pacific (WNP) and their future change in responses to doubling and quadrupling of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. In the NIO, RS increases more than RA when CO2 rises, but the WNP shows the opposite behavior. We demonstrate that RS is highly related to the lifetime maximum intensity, landfall intensity, and latent heat flux (LHFLX), while RA depends mainly on LHFLX, relative humidity at 600 hPa, and vertical wind shear over the WNP. Our results suggest the need to establish regional-scale adaptation strategies for future changes in landfalling TCs rainfall. Full title: Rainfall strength and area from landfalling tropical cyclones over the North Indian and western North Pacific oceans under increased CO₂ conditions
- 작성자Moon et al.
- 작성일2024.09.04
- 조회수71
- 2023
Recent air quality deterioration on weekends in Seoul, South Korea: A focus on external contribution

Abstract: This study has found that the wintertime (November–March) air quality in Seoul, Korea had been deteriorated in weekends during the period of 2016–2019. Specifically, the concentration of particulate matters (PMs) of aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) in weekends (Saturday–Sunday) was up to 30% higher than that in the mid-week (Wednesday–Thursday) days (probability value < 0.01). As the weekend PM concentration had been lower than the mid-week values by 10% until 2015, such a sudden change in the intra-weekly air quality is unexpected. This study finds out that the deterioration of air quality in weekends can be attributed primarily to secondary particle formations and external transports from China (Shandong and northeast provinces) and domestic provinces (southern Gyeonggi and Chungcheong in Korea) to Seoul. High concentration of PM2.5 on weekend could be partially explained by the differences in the concentrations of inorganic PM components including nitrate, ammonium, and sulfate between weekends and mid-week days. About 40% of the differences are attributed to the domestic sources located in the southern region to Seoul. However, domestic emission from power generations and industry sector in southern source region on weekends does not well explain the variations of the PM precursors in weekends. Therefore, a clear strategy for improving air quality on the weekend in Seoul requires steady efforts to accurately calculate regional emissions and to reveal missing emissions sources.
- 작성자Choi et al.
- 작성일2024.09.04
- 조회수59
- 2023
Enhanced seasonal amplitude of atmospheric CO2 by the Southern Ocean

Abstract: The enhanced seasonal amplitude of atmospheric CO2 has been viewed so far primarily as a Northern Hemisphere phenomenon. Yet, analyses of atmospheric CO2 records from 49 stations between 1980 and 2018 reveal substantial trends and variations in this amplitude globally. While no significant trends can be discerned before 2000 in most places, strong positive trends emerge after 2000 in the southern high latitudes. Using factorial simulations with an atmospheric transport model and analyses of surface ocean PCO2 observations, we show that the increase is best explained by the onset of increasing seasonality of air-sea CO2 exchange over the Southern Ocean around 2000. Underlying these changes is the long-term ocean acidification trend that tends to enhance the seasonality of the air-sea fluxes, but this trend is modified by the decadal variability of the Southern Ocean carbon sink. The seasonal variations of atmospheric CO2 thus emerge as a sensitive recorder of the variations of the Southern Ocean carbon sink.
- 작성자Yun et al.
- 작성일2024.09.04
- 조회수64
- 2022
Erratic Asian summer monsoon 2020: COVID-19 lockdown initiatives possible cause for these episodes?

Abstract: The summer (June through September) monsoon 2020 has been very erratic with episodes of heavy and devastating rains, landslides and catastrophic winds over South Asia (India, Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh), East Asia (China, Korea, and Japan), and Southeast Asia (Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Philippines, Indonesia). The withdrawal of the summer monsoon over India was delayed by 2 weeks. The monsoon season over East Asia has been the longest. China recorded a Dam burst in the twentieth century. Furthermore, the Korean Peninsula has experienced back-to-back severe tropical cyclones. Could the lockdown activities initiate to control the COVID-19 spread a possible cause for these major episodes? The strict enforcement of the lockdown regulations has led to a considerable reduction of air pollutants—dust and aerosols throughout the world. A recent study based on satellites and merged products has documented a statistically significant mean reduction of about 20, 8, and 50% in nitrogen dioxide, Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) and PM2.5 concentrations, respectively over the megacities across the globe. Our analysis reveals a considerable reduction of about 20% in AOD over South as well as over East Asia, more-over East Asia than over South Asia. The reduced aerosols have impacted the strength of the incoming solar radiation as evidenced by enhanced warming, more-over the land than the oceans. The differential warming over the land and the ocean has resulted in the amplification of the meridional ocean-land thermal contrast and strengthening of the monsoon flow. These intense features have supported the surplus transport of moisture from the oceans towards the main lands. Some similarity between the anomalous rainfall pattern and the anomalous AOD pattern is discernable. In particular, the enhancement of rainfall, the reduction in AOD and the surface temperature warming match very well over two regions one over West-Central India and the other over the Yangzte River Valley. Results further reveal that the heavy rains over the Yangzte River Valley could be associated with the preceding reduced aerosols, while the heavy rains over West-Central India could be associated with reduced aerosols and also due to the surface temperature warming.
- 작성자Kripalani et al.
- 작성일2024.09.04
- 조회수63
- 2022
Latitudinal variation of the lifetime maximum intensity location of Atlantic tropical cyclones controlled by the AMO

Abstract: The latitude of lifetime maximum intensity (LMI) location (ϕLMI) of Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) is related to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) with a significant negative correlation for 1948–2018. We objectively classify TC tracks into four patterns, to evaluate the effects of variations in dominant track patterns (track ϕLMI) and intra-pattern ϕLMI (pure ϕLMI) on the total ϕLMI variation. During the warm phases of AMO, the prevailed south-origin track patterns and equatorward pure ϕLMI shifts have almost equally contributed to the equatorward migration of the total ϕLMI. The negative anomaly of potential intensity in the subtropics is responsible for the equatorward shift of pure ϕLMI. Moreover, weak vertical wind shear in the tropics increases the south-origin track patterns. These environmental conditions are associated with the east-strong and west-weak relative sea surface temperature warming during the warm phases that causes anomalous upward and downward motions in the eastern and western Atlantic, respectively. Full title: Latitudinal variation of the lifetime maximum intensity location of Atlantic tropical cyclones controlled by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
- 작성자Kim et al.
- 작성일2024.09.04
- 조회수64
- 2022
Possible influence of ENSO Modoki and AO on spatiotemporal variability of spring precipitation over the WNP

Abstract: There are two leading modes in boreal spring precipitation over the western North Pacific (WNP). The first leading mode is a dipole pattern between the southern China and Southeast Asia, which have been previously investigated. The second leading mode is a tripole pattern, which this study focused on. The pattern shows that the positive cores are located in the midlatitudes and the tropical WNP, respectively, whereas the negative one extends from the subtropics to the South China Sea. The mode of tripole pattern is predominantly responsible for the actual spring precipitation variation in the subtropics (r = − 0.93). On the other hand, the precipitation variations in the midlatitudes, the tropical WNP, and the South China Sea are not well explained as much as that in the subtropics. The tripole-pattern-related circulation resembles the positive phase of North Pacific Oscillation, possibly associated with the El Niño Modoki and the positive phase of Arctic Oscillation. The circulation corresponds to the northward shift of the WNP subtropical high, which contributes to the precipitation increase and decrease in the midlatitudes and subtropics, respectively. Meanwhile, the weakened Walker circulation in tropical western Pacific accounts for the decreased and the increased precipitation in the South China Sea and the tropical WNP, respectively. The opposite is true for the circulations related to the La Niña Modoki and negative phase of Arctic Oscillation. Full title: Possible influence of ENSO Modoki and Arctic Oscillation on spatiotemporal variability of spring precipitation over the western North Pacific
- 작성자Park et al.
- 작성일2024.09.04
- 조회수60
- 2022
Untangling the contribution of input parameters to an artificial intelligence PM2.5 forecast model using the LRP method

Abstract: The recurrent neural network (RNN), an artificial intelligence algorithm, applied to the predictions based on the Community Multiscale Air Quality operational model has significantly improved the forecast accuracy of the concentrations of particulate matter with a diameter of ≤2.5 μm (PM2.5) in the Seoul metropolitan area of the Republic of Korea. It is challenging to interpret the prediction results and identify the related error sources because the decision-making process of the RNN model is inaccessible. This study evaluated the relevance score of the RNN input variables using the layer-wise relevance propagation (LRP) at 6-hourly forecasts over the winters of 2015–2021 (December through February). The relevance score magnitudes summed over the period from the target prediction time to 2–5 and 4–7 time-steps before it (i.e., the most recent 12–30 h and 24–42 h, respectively) show ∼80% of the total relevance score for one- and two-day forecasts, respectively. The input variables were originally selected by their correlation coefficients with the observed PM2.5 concentration; however, the order of input variable contributions measured by the LRP differs from the order of the correlation coefficients, implying inconsistency between the linear and nonlinear methods. Retraining the RNN model using a subset of variables of high relevance scores is found to yield prediction skills comparable to the original set of input variables. This study can contribute to the improvement of the RNN prediction model by decoding the black box of an artificial intelligence model using the LRP method. Full title: Untangling the contribution of input parameters to an artificial intelligence PM2.5 forecast model using the layer-wise relevance propagation method
- 작성자Kim et al.
- 작성일2024.09.04
- 조회수60
- 2022
Assessing the influence of large-scale environmental conditions on rainfall structure of Atlantic tropical cyclones: An

Abstract: Understanding the mechanisms related to the variations in the rainfall structure of tropical cyclones (TCs) is crucial in improving forecasting systems of TC rainfall and its impact. Using satellite precipitation and reanalysis data, we examined the influence of along-track large-scale environmental conditions on inner-core rainfall strength (RS) and total rainfall area (RA) for Atlantic TCs during the TC season (July–November) from 1998 to 2019. Factor analysis revealed three major factors associated with variations in RS and RA: large-scale low and high pressure systems [factor 1 (F1)]; environmental flows, sea surface temperature, and humidity [factor 2 (F2)]; and maximum wind speed of TCs [factor 3 (F3)]. Results from our study indicate that RS increases with an increase in the inherent primary circulation of TCs (i.e., F3) but is less affected by large-scale environmental conditions (i.e., F1 and F2), whereas RA is primarily influenced by large-scale low and high pressure systems (i.e., F1) over the entire North Atlantic and partially influenced by environmental flows, sea surface temperature, humidity, and maximum wind speed (i.e., F2 and F3). A multivariable regression model based on the three factors accounted for the variations of RS and RA across the entire basin. In addition, regional distributions of mean RS and RA from the model significantly resembled those from observations. Therefore, our study suggests that large-scale environmental conditions over the North Atlantic Ocean are important predictors for TC rainfall forecasts, particularly with regard to RA. Full title: Assessing the influence of large-scale environmental conditions on rainfall structure of Atlantic tropical cyclones: An observational study
- 작성자Kim et al.
- 작성일2024.09.04
- 조회수56
- 2021
Assessment and valuation of health impacts of fine PM during COVID-19 lockdown: A comprehensive study...

Abstract: A novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) continues to challenge the whole world. The disease has claimed many fatalities as it has transcended from one country to another since it was first discovered in China in late 2019. To prevent further morbidity and mortality associated with COVID-19, most of the countries initiated a countrywide lockdown. While physical distancing and lockdowns helped in curbing the spread of this novel coronavirus, it led to massive economic losses for the nations. Positive impacts have been observed due to lockdown in terms of improved air quality of the nations. In the current research, ten tropical and subtropical countries have been analysed from multiple angles, including air pollution, assessment and valuation of health impacts and economic loss of countries during COVID-19 lockdown. Countries include Brazil, India, Iran, Kenya, Malaysia, Mexico, Pakistan, Peru, Sri Lanka, and Thailand. Validated Simplified Aerosol Retrieval Algorithm (SARA) binning model is used on data collated from moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) for particulate matters with a diameter of less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) for all the countries for the month of January to May 2019 and 2020. The concentration results of PM2.5 show that air pollution has drastically reduced in 2020 post lockdown for all countries. The highest average concentration obtained by converting aerosol optical depth (AOD) for 2020 is observed for Thailand as 121.9 μg/m3 and the lowest for Mexico as 36.27 μg/m3. As air pollution is found to decrease in the April and May months of 2020 for nearly all countries, they are compared with respective previous year values for the same duration to calculate the reduced health burden due to lockdown. The present study estimates that cumulative about 100.9 Billion US$ are saved due to reduced air pollution externalities, which are about 25% of the cumulative economic loss of 435.9 Billion US$. Full title: Assessment and valuation of health impacts of fine particulate matter during COVID-19 lockdown: A comprehensive study of tropical and sub tropical countries
- 작성자Bherwani et al.
- 작성일2024.09.04
- 조회수64
- 2021
Asymmetric expansion of summer season on May and September in Korea

Abstract: Global warming and its associated changes in the timing of seasonal progression may produce substantial ripple effects on the regional climate and ecosystem. This study analyzes the surface air temperature recorded during the period 1919–2017 at seven stations in the Republic of Korea to investigate the long-term changes at the beginning and ending of the summer season and their relationship with the warming trends of spring and autumn. The temperatures at the starting (June 1) and ending (August 31) dates of the past period (1919–1948) advanced by 13 days and delayed by 4 days, respectively, for the recent period (1988–2017). This asymmetric change was caused by continuous warming in May for the entire period of analysis and an abrupt warming in September in the recent decades. Different amplitudes of the expansion of the western North Pacific subtropical high in May and September are responsible for the asymmetric expansion of the summer season. The projections of surface warming for spring and autumn in Korea used the downscaled grid data of a regional climate model, which were obtained by the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario of a general circulation model, and indicated a continuous positive trend until 2100. Larger interannual variability of blooming timing of early autumn flowers than that of late spring flowers may represent the response of the ecosystem to the seasonally asymmetric surface warming. Results suggest that the shift of seasons and associated warming trend have a disturbing effect on an ecosystem, and this trend will intensify in the future.
- 작성자Ho et al.
- 작성일2024.09.04
- 조회수123
- 2021
Development of a PM2.5 prediction model using a recurrent neural network algorithm for the Seoul metropolitan area, ROK

Abstract: The National Institute of Environmental Research, the Ministry of Environment, has been forecasting the concentrations of particulate matter (PM) with a diameter ≤ 2.5 μm (PM2.5) over Seoul, Republic of Korea, in terms of four PM2.5 concentration categories (low, moderate, high, and very high) since August 31, 2013. The current model, the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model, is run four times a day to forecast air quality for up to two days in 6-h intervals. In 2018, the hit ratio (i.e., accuracy) of the model was 60%, with an additional increase of 10% with the involvement of a forecaster. The CMAQ was improved in this study by incorporating a recurrent neural network (RNN) algorithm for the Seoul Metropolitan Area. Input datasets to the RNN model—PM values, meteorological parameters, and back-trajectory tracks obtained from both observations and model forecasts—were sorted according to time as the RNN algorithm learns time sequence series information, unlike typical neural network algorithms. To reflect the seasonality of the meteorological parameters that influence the PM2.5 concentrations in the region, one year was divided into 36 sets of three-month periods (i.e., there are three sets for July: May–June–July, June–July–August, and July–August–September). Several indices representing the accuracy of the forecast were calculated based on the RNN model results for 2018 after training the model for the previous three years (2015–2017). The accuracy of the RNN model is 74–81% for forecast lead times up to two days, about 20% higher than the CMAQ-only forecasts and ~10% higher than the combined CMAQ-forecaster forecast. The RNN model probabilities of detection for both high and very high PM2.5 events are comparable to those of the CMAQ model; however, the RNN model notably reduces the false alarm rate. Overall, the RNN model yields higher performance than the current forecast methods. Hence, this model can be adopted as an operational forecast model in Korea. Full title: Development of a PM2.5 prediction model using a recurrent neural network algorithm for the Seoul metropolitan area, Republic of Korea
- 작성자Ho et al.
- 작성일2024.09.04
- 조회수86
- 2021
Development of a track-pattern-based medium-range tropical cyclone forecasting system for the western North Pacific

Abstract: Despite tremendous advancements in dynamical models for weather forecasting, statistical models continue to offer various possibilities for tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasting. Herein, a track-pattern-based approach was developed to predict a TC track for a lead time of 6–8 days over the western North Pacific (WNP), utilizing historical tracks in conjunction with dynamical forecasts. It is composed of four main steps: 1) clustering historical tracks similar to that of an operational 5-day forecast in their early phase into track patterns, and calculating the daily mean environmental fields (500-hPa geopotential height and steering flow) associated with each track; 2) deriving the two environmental variables forecasted by dynamical models; 3) evaluating pattern correlation coefficients between the two environmental fields from step 1 and those from dynamical model for a lead times of 6–8 days; and 4) producing the final track forecast based on relative frequency maps obtained from the historical tracks in step 1 and the pattern correlation coefficients obtained from step 3. TCs that formed in the WNP and lasted for at least 7 days, during the 9-yr period 2011–19 were selected to verify the resulting track-pattern-based forecasts. In addition to the performance comparable to dynamical models under certain conditions, the track-pattern-based model is inexpensive, and can consistently produce forecasts over large latitudinal or longitudinal ranges. Machine learning techniques can be implemented to incorporate nonlinearity in the present model for improving medium-range track forecasts.
- 작성자Cheung et al.
- 작성일2024.09.04
- 조회수75
- 2021
Large volcanic eruptions reduce landfalling tropical cyclone activity: Evidence from tree rings

Abstract: Tropical cyclones (TCs) are one of the most devastating storm systems with high socioeconomic impacts around the world. The drivers of long-term changes in TC frequency and intensity, including the recent global climatic changes, are, however, poorly understood due to short instrumental measurements and a lack of accurate proxy records. Here we present the long-term impacts of large volcanic eruptions on TC activity in northeast Asia. For this purpose, we performed a reconstruction of the frequency and intensity of landfalling TCs based on tree-ring oxygen isotope ratios over the past 350 years. Our results revealed markedly depleted δ18O values (P < 0.01) for TC years and confirm tree-ring δ18O as a strong proxy for the detection of past TCs. The agreement between the δ18O chronology and the corresponding TC record (1950–2005) was 96.4% and it was relatively high also for the preceding periods covered by less reliable TC records, specifically 76.1% (1904–1949) and 66.4% (1652–1903). In addition to the prominent TC frequency signal, we found a strong negative correlation (R = −0.65; P < 0.001) between the δ18O chronology and TC intensity expressed by the amount of TC precipitation. Our reconstruction revealed that the recent high frequency of landfalling TCs is distinct on a long-term scale. We provide the first long-term evidence of reduced TC activity for two years following large volcanic eruptions. Our results indicate that volcanic ash is a relevant driver of TC activity over northeast Asia via its role on radiative climate forcing. We suggest that large volcanic eruptions modulate large-scale atmospheric and oceanic circulation determining TC genesis and thus TC activity in the western North Pacific.
- 작성자Altman et al.
- 작성일2024.09.04
- 조회수76
- 2021
Possible cause of seasonal inhomogeneity in interdecadal changes of tropical cyclone genesis frequency over the WNP

Abstract: An abrupt decrease in annual tropical cyclone genesis frequency (TCGF), which is statistically significant only from October to December (OND), has been noticed over the western North Pacific Ocean. However, the seasonal inhomogeneity of interdecadal changes in TCGF between OND and the other seasons (from January to September) and the associated mechanisms are not clearly documented. This study examines and compares the different interdecadal changes in OND and in January–September from 1979 to 2018. According to our analysis, the TCGF decrease in OND (2.2) accounts for 79% of the total decrease (2.8) in annual TCGF after 1998, whereas the TCGF in January to September remains unchanged. The key differences in large-scale environment are found from the extension of equatorial easterly wind anomalies and attendant anticyclone anomalies in the subtropics. Under similar sea surface temperature (SST) warming pattern in the tropical Indo-Pacific region (i.e., the La Niña–like SST warming), tropical precipitation is significantly enhanced over the area where its seasonal peak occurs: the tropical Indian Ocean in OND and the tropical western Pacific in January–September. Thus, the equatorial easterly wind anomalies extend westward to 110°E in OND and to 145°E in January–September. Different extension of easterly wind anomalies results in different expansion of attendant large-scale anticyclone anomaly over the subtropical western Pacific, which dominates the entire main development region in OND but not in January–September. To summarize, the different extensions of easterly wind anomalies under similar La Niña–like SST warming are responsible for the seasonal inhomogeneity of interdecadal changes in TCGF. Full title: Possible cause of seasonal inhomogeneity in interdecadal changes of tropical cyclone genesis frequency over the western North Pacific
- 작성자Chang et al.
- 작성일2024.09.04
- 조회수50
- 2021
Quantifying the impact of synoptic weather systems on high PM2.5 episodes in the Seoul metropolitan area, Korea

Abstract: Variations in concentrations of PM2.5, particulate matters of diameters below 2.5 μm, vary following both meteorological conditions and emissions controls. Meteorological conditions particularly affect short-term high PM2.5 episodes through accumulations, transports, and secondary formations. This study quantifies the meteorological impacts on high PM2.5 episodes in the Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA), Korea, for the period 2016–2018 using empirical and statistical methods. Synoptic weather maps of 77 high PM2.5 episodes in 2016 are grouped into two synoptic types: onshore winds associated with migratory pressure systems over the SMA and offshore winds from continental high pressure extending toward the SMA. We applied principal component analysis and regression to extract the dominant synoptic types controlling PM2.5 variability. It identifies two major principal components (PCs) from 12 surface and upper-air meteorological variables for 2017–2018. Weather patterns in 49 examples of the high-positive PCs show that the two PCs are capable of reproducing the synoptic weather patterns relevant for high PM2.5 episodes. To quantify the relationship between the synoptic weather patterns and PM2.5 levels, the two PCs are further classified into four groups according to their signs. Positive- and negative-PC groups are associated with about 82% and 73% of high- and low-PM2.5 episodes, respectively, suggesting that most of the high/low PM2.5 episodes in the SMA can occur under the two PCs-dominant weather conditions. The results can be utilized as a reference for daily predictions of high PM2.5 episodes, as well as for quantitative analysis of the climatic influence on the long-term PM2.5 variability.
- 작성자Chang et al.
- 작성일2024.09.04
- 조회수54
- 2021
Regulatory measures significantly reduced air-pollutant concentrations in Seoul, Korea

Abstract: The Government of the Republic of Korea has enforced strict regulations to improve air quality since the early 2000s. The regulations are mainly focused on reducing vehicle emissions in the Seoul metropolitan region by conforming to the European emissions standards, replacing diesel buses with compressed natural gas buses, incentives for installing diesel exhaust after-treatment systems and buying eco-friendly vehicles. There was a 20% reduction in 2010s compared to the 2000s in terms of the mean concentrations of particulate matter (PM) with mean aerodynamic diameters of ≤10 μm (PM10) and 2.5 μm (PM2.5) during cold seasons (October through following February) although the decrease may not be entirely attributable to the regulations. The influences of other external factors such as transboundary transport of air pollutants and regional meteorological conditions cannot be neglected. This study analyzes the change in the diurnal variations—two maxima at around 11 and 22 local time (LT) and two minima at around 6 and 16 LT—of air pollutant concentrations that may be closely related to the regulatory action in reducing local vehicle emissions. A reduction of over 40% for the amplitude of two PM concentrations at 11 LT was revealed when values from the 2010s were compared to those from the 2000s. There was a similar reduction for other vehicle exhaust gases including nitrogen dioxide, carbon monoxide, and sulfur dioxide. Additional analysis of the long-term trend in mixed layer height and surface wind speed showed that the change in environmental conditions in the diurnal time scale was either negligible or unfavorable for conditions which reduce PM concentrations. This study suggests that the mean concentration estimation may underestimate the regulatory effects, but the approach based on the diurnal variation may be a more accurate indicator.
- 작성자Ho et al.
- 작성일2024.09.04
- 조회수77
- 2021