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국제학술지

공지 (2025. 10. 28.)

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Untangling the contribution of input parameters to an artificial intelligence PM2.5 forecast model using the LRP method

Abstract: The recurrent neural network (RNN), an artificial intelligence algorithm, applied to the predictions based on the Community Multiscale Air Quality operational model has significantly improved the forecast accuracy of the concentrations of particulate matter with a diameter of ≤2.5 μm (PM2.5) in the Seoul metropolitan area of the Republic of Korea. It is challenging to interpret the prediction results and identify the related error sources because the decision-making process of the RNN model is inaccessible. This study evaluated the relevance score of the RNN input variables using the layer-wise relevance propagation (LRP) at 6-hourly forecasts over the winters of 2015–2021 (December through February). The relevance score magnitudes summed over the period from the target prediction time to 2–5 and 4–7 time-steps before it (i.e., the most recent 12–30 h and 24–42 h, respectively) show ∼80% of the total relevance score for one- and two-day forecasts, respectively. The input variables were originally selected by their correlation coefficients with the observed PM2.5 concentration; however, the order of input variable contributions measured by the LRP differs from the order of the correlation coefficients, implying inconsistency between the linear and nonlinear methods. Retraining the RNN model using a subset of variables of high relevance scores is found to yield prediction skills comparable to the original set of input variables. This study can contribute to the improvement of the RNN prediction model by decoding the black box of an artificial intelligence model using the LRP method. Full title: Untangling the contribution of input parameters to an artificial intelligence PM2.5 forecast model using the layer-wise relevance propagation method
- 작성자Kim et al.
- 작성일2024.09.04
- 조회수61
- 2022
Assessing the influence of large-scale environmental conditions on rainfall structure of Atlantic tropical cyclones: An

Abstract: Understanding the mechanisms related to the variations in the rainfall structure of tropical cyclones (TCs) is crucial in improving forecasting systems of TC rainfall and its impact. Using satellite precipitation and reanalysis data, we examined the influence of along-track large-scale environmental conditions on inner-core rainfall strength (RS) and total rainfall area (RA) for Atlantic TCs during the TC season (July–November) from 1998 to 2019. Factor analysis revealed three major factors associated with variations in RS and RA: large-scale low and high pressure systems [factor 1 (F1)]; environmental flows, sea surface temperature, and humidity [factor 2 (F2)]; and maximum wind speed of TCs [factor 3 (F3)]. Results from our study indicate that RS increases with an increase in the inherent primary circulation of TCs (i.e., F3) but is less affected by large-scale environmental conditions (i.e., F1 and F2), whereas RA is primarily influenced by large-scale low and high pressure systems (i.e., F1) over the entire North Atlantic and partially influenced by environmental flows, sea surface temperature, humidity, and maximum wind speed (i.e., F2 and F3). A multivariable regression model based on the three factors accounted for the variations of RS and RA across the entire basin. In addition, regional distributions of mean RS and RA from the model significantly resembled those from observations. Therefore, our study suggests that large-scale environmental conditions over the North Atlantic Ocean are important predictors for TC rainfall forecasts, particularly with regard to RA. Full title: Assessing the influence of large-scale environmental conditions on rainfall structure of Atlantic tropical cyclones: An observational study
- 작성자Kim et al.
- 작성일2024.09.04
- 조회수56
- 2021
Assessment and valuation of health impacts of fine PM during COVID-19 lockdown: A comprehensive study...

Abstract: A novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) continues to challenge the whole world. The disease has claimed many fatalities as it has transcended from one country to another since it was first discovered in China in late 2019. To prevent further morbidity and mortality associated with COVID-19, most of the countries initiated a countrywide lockdown. While physical distancing and lockdowns helped in curbing the spread of this novel coronavirus, it led to massive economic losses for the nations. Positive impacts have been observed due to lockdown in terms of improved air quality of the nations. In the current research, ten tropical and subtropical countries have been analysed from multiple angles, including air pollution, assessment and valuation of health impacts and economic loss of countries during COVID-19 lockdown. Countries include Brazil, India, Iran, Kenya, Malaysia, Mexico, Pakistan, Peru, Sri Lanka, and Thailand. Validated Simplified Aerosol Retrieval Algorithm (SARA) binning model is used on data collated from moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) for particulate matters with a diameter of less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) for all the countries for the month of January to May 2019 and 2020. The concentration results of PM2.5 show that air pollution has drastically reduced in 2020 post lockdown for all countries. The highest average concentration obtained by converting aerosol optical depth (AOD) for 2020 is observed for Thailand as 121.9 μg/m3 and the lowest for Mexico as 36.27 μg/m3. As air pollution is found to decrease in the April and May months of 2020 for nearly all countries, they are compared with respective previous year values for the same duration to calculate the reduced health burden due to lockdown. The present study estimates that cumulative about 100.9 Billion US$ are saved due to reduced air pollution externalities, which are about 25% of the cumulative economic loss of 435.9 Billion US$. Full title: Assessment and valuation of health impacts of fine particulate matter during COVID-19 lockdown: A comprehensive study of tropical and sub tropical countries
- 작성자Bherwani et al.
- 작성일2024.09.04
- 조회수67
- 2021
Asymmetric expansion of summer season on May and September in Korea

Abstract: Global warming and its associated changes in the timing of seasonal progression may produce substantial ripple effects on the regional climate and ecosystem. This study analyzes the surface air temperature recorded during the period 1919–2017 at seven stations in the Republic of Korea to investigate the long-term changes at the beginning and ending of the summer season and their relationship with the warming trends of spring and autumn. The temperatures at the starting (June 1) and ending (August 31) dates of the past period (1919–1948) advanced by 13 days and delayed by 4 days, respectively, for the recent period (1988–2017). This asymmetric change was caused by continuous warming in May for the entire period of analysis and an abrupt warming in September in the recent decades. Different amplitudes of the expansion of the western North Pacific subtropical high in May and September are responsible for the asymmetric expansion of the summer season. The projections of surface warming for spring and autumn in Korea used the downscaled grid data of a regional climate model, which were obtained by the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario of a general circulation model, and indicated a continuous positive trend until 2100. Larger interannual variability of blooming timing of early autumn flowers than that of late spring flowers may represent the response of the ecosystem to the seasonally asymmetric surface warming. Results suggest that the shift of seasons and associated warming trend have a disturbing effect on an ecosystem, and this trend will intensify in the future.
- 작성자Ho et al.
- 작성일2024.09.04
- 조회수127
- 2021
Development of a PM2.5 prediction model using a recurrent neural network algorithm for the Seoul metropolitan area, ROK

Abstract: The National Institute of Environmental Research, the Ministry of Environment, has been forecasting the concentrations of particulate matter (PM) with a diameter ≤ 2.5 μm (PM2.5) over Seoul, Republic of Korea, in terms of four PM2.5 concentration categories (low, moderate, high, and very high) since August 31, 2013. The current model, the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model, is run four times a day to forecast air quality for up to two days in 6-h intervals. In 2018, the hit ratio (i.e., accuracy) of the model was 60%, with an additional increase of 10% with the involvement of a forecaster. The CMAQ was improved in this study by incorporating a recurrent neural network (RNN) algorithm for the Seoul Metropolitan Area. Input datasets to the RNN model—PM values, meteorological parameters, and back-trajectory tracks obtained from both observations and model forecasts—were sorted according to time as the RNN algorithm learns time sequence series information, unlike typical neural network algorithms. To reflect the seasonality of the meteorological parameters that influence the PM2.5 concentrations in the region, one year was divided into 36 sets of three-month periods (i.e., there are three sets for July: May–June–July, June–July–August, and July–August–September). Several indices representing the accuracy of the forecast were calculated based on the RNN model results for 2018 after training the model for the previous three years (2015–2017). The accuracy of the RNN model is 74–81% for forecast lead times up to two days, about 20% higher than the CMAQ-only forecasts and ~10% higher than the combined CMAQ-forecaster forecast. The RNN model probabilities of detection for both high and very high PM2.5 events are comparable to those of the CMAQ model; however, the RNN model notably reduces the false alarm rate. Overall, the RNN model yields higher performance than the current forecast methods. Hence, this model can be adopted as an operational forecast model in Korea. Full title: Development of a PM2.5 prediction model using a recurrent neural network algorithm for the Seoul metropolitan area, Republic of Korea
- 작성자Ho et al.
- 작성일2024.09.04
- 조회수91
- 2021
Development of a track-pattern-based medium-range tropical cyclone forecasting system for the western North Pacific

Abstract: Despite tremendous advancements in dynamical models for weather forecasting, statistical models continue to offer various possibilities for tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasting. Herein, a track-pattern-based approach was developed to predict a TC track for a lead time of 6–8 days over the western North Pacific (WNP), utilizing historical tracks in conjunction with dynamical forecasts. It is composed of four main steps: 1) clustering historical tracks similar to that of an operational 5-day forecast in their early phase into track patterns, and calculating the daily mean environmental fields (500-hPa geopotential height and steering flow) associated with each track; 2) deriving the two environmental variables forecasted by dynamical models; 3) evaluating pattern correlation coefficients between the two environmental fields from step 1 and those from dynamical model for a lead times of 6–8 days; and 4) producing the final track forecast based on relative frequency maps obtained from the historical tracks in step 1 and the pattern correlation coefficients obtained from step 3. TCs that formed in the WNP and lasted for at least 7 days, during the 9-yr period 2011–19 were selected to verify the resulting track-pattern-based forecasts. In addition to the performance comparable to dynamical models under certain conditions, the track-pattern-based model is inexpensive, and can consistently produce forecasts over large latitudinal or longitudinal ranges. Machine learning techniques can be implemented to incorporate nonlinearity in the present model for improving medium-range track forecasts.
- 작성자Cheung et al.
- 작성일2024.09.04
- 조회수79
- 2021
Large volcanic eruptions reduce landfalling tropical cyclone activity: Evidence from tree rings

Abstract: Tropical cyclones (TCs) are one of the most devastating storm systems with high socioeconomic impacts around the world. The drivers of long-term changes in TC frequency and intensity, including the recent global climatic changes, are, however, poorly understood due to short instrumental measurements and a lack of accurate proxy records. Here we present the long-term impacts of large volcanic eruptions on TC activity in northeast Asia. For this purpose, we performed a reconstruction of the frequency and intensity of landfalling TCs based on tree-ring oxygen isotope ratios over the past 350 years. Our results revealed markedly depleted δ18O values (P < 0.01) for TC years and confirm tree-ring δ18O as a strong proxy for the detection of past TCs. The agreement between the δ18O chronology and the corresponding TC record (1950–2005) was 96.4% and it was relatively high also for the preceding periods covered by less reliable TC records, specifically 76.1% (1904–1949) and 66.4% (1652–1903). In addition to the prominent TC frequency signal, we found a strong negative correlation (R = −0.65; P < 0.001) between the δ18O chronology and TC intensity expressed by the amount of TC precipitation. Our reconstruction revealed that the recent high frequency of landfalling TCs is distinct on a long-term scale. We provide the first long-term evidence of reduced TC activity for two years following large volcanic eruptions. Our results indicate that volcanic ash is a relevant driver of TC activity over northeast Asia via its role on radiative climate forcing. We suggest that large volcanic eruptions modulate large-scale atmospheric and oceanic circulation determining TC genesis and thus TC activity in the western North Pacific.
- 작성자Altman et al.
- 작성일2024.09.04
- 조회수78
- 2021
Possible cause of seasonal inhomogeneity in interdecadal changes of tropical cyclone genesis frequency over the WNP

Abstract: An abrupt decrease in annual tropical cyclone genesis frequency (TCGF), which is statistically significant only from October to December (OND), has been noticed over the western North Pacific Ocean. However, the seasonal inhomogeneity of interdecadal changes in TCGF between OND and the other seasons (from January to September) and the associated mechanisms are not clearly documented. This study examines and compares the different interdecadal changes in OND and in January–September from 1979 to 2018. According to our analysis, the TCGF decrease in OND (2.2) accounts for 79% of the total decrease (2.8) in annual TCGF after 1998, whereas the TCGF in January to September remains unchanged. The key differences in large-scale environment are found from the extension of equatorial easterly wind anomalies and attendant anticyclone anomalies in the subtropics. Under similar sea surface temperature (SST) warming pattern in the tropical Indo-Pacific region (i.e., the La Niña–like SST warming), tropical precipitation is significantly enhanced over the area where its seasonal peak occurs: the tropical Indian Ocean in OND and the tropical western Pacific in January–September. Thus, the equatorial easterly wind anomalies extend westward to 110°E in OND and to 145°E in January–September. Different extension of easterly wind anomalies results in different expansion of attendant large-scale anticyclone anomaly over the subtropical western Pacific, which dominates the entire main development region in OND but not in January–September. To summarize, the different extensions of easterly wind anomalies under similar La Niña–like SST warming are responsible for the seasonal inhomogeneity of interdecadal changes in TCGF. Full title: Possible cause of seasonal inhomogeneity in interdecadal changes of tropical cyclone genesis frequency over the western North Pacific
- 작성자Chang et al.
- 작성일2024.09.04
- 조회수55
- 2021
Quantifying the impact of synoptic weather systems on high PM2.5 episodes in the Seoul metropolitan area, Korea

Abstract: Variations in concentrations of PM2.5, particulate matters of diameters below 2.5 μm, vary following both meteorological conditions and emissions controls. Meteorological conditions particularly affect short-term high PM2.5 episodes through accumulations, transports, and secondary formations. This study quantifies the meteorological impacts on high PM2.5 episodes in the Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA), Korea, for the period 2016–2018 using empirical and statistical methods. Synoptic weather maps of 77 high PM2.5 episodes in 2016 are grouped into two synoptic types: onshore winds associated with migratory pressure systems over the SMA and offshore winds from continental high pressure extending toward the SMA. We applied principal component analysis and regression to extract the dominant synoptic types controlling PM2.5 variability. It identifies two major principal components (PCs) from 12 surface and upper-air meteorological variables for 2017–2018. Weather patterns in 49 examples of the high-positive PCs show that the two PCs are capable of reproducing the synoptic weather patterns relevant for high PM2.5 episodes. To quantify the relationship between the synoptic weather patterns and PM2.5 levels, the two PCs are further classified into four groups according to their signs. Positive- and negative-PC groups are associated with about 82% and 73% of high- and low-PM2.5 episodes, respectively, suggesting that most of the high/low PM2.5 episodes in the SMA can occur under the two PCs-dominant weather conditions. The results can be utilized as a reference for daily predictions of high PM2.5 episodes, as well as for quantitative analysis of the climatic influence on the long-term PM2.5 variability.
- 작성자Chang et al.
- 작성일2024.09.04
- 조회수58
- 2021
Regulatory measures significantly reduced air-pollutant concentrations in Seoul, Korea

Abstract: The Government of the Republic of Korea has enforced strict regulations to improve air quality since the early 2000s. The regulations are mainly focused on reducing vehicle emissions in the Seoul metropolitan region by conforming to the European emissions standards, replacing diesel buses with compressed natural gas buses, incentives for installing diesel exhaust after-treatment systems and buying eco-friendly vehicles. There was a 20% reduction in 2010s compared to the 2000s in terms of the mean concentrations of particulate matter (PM) with mean aerodynamic diameters of ≤10 μm (PM10) and 2.5 μm (PM2.5) during cold seasons (October through following February) although the decrease may not be entirely attributable to the regulations. The influences of other external factors such as transboundary transport of air pollutants and regional meteorological conditions cannot be neglected. This study analyzes the change in the diurnal variations—two maxima at around 11 and 22 local time (LT) and two minima at around 6 and 16 LT—of air pollutant concentrations that may be closely related to the regulatory action in reducing local vehicle emissions. A reduction of over 40% for the amplitude of two PM concentrations at 11 LT was revealed when values from the 2010s were compared to those from the 2000s. There was a similar reduction for other vehicle exhaust gases including nitrogen dioxide, carbon monoxide, and sulfur dioxide. Additional analysis of the long-term trend in mixed layer height and surface wind speed showed that the change in environmental conditions in the diurnal time scale was either negligible or unfavorable for conditions which reduce PM concentrations. This study suggests that the mean concentration estimation may underestimate the regulatory effects, but the approach based on the diurnal variation may be a more accurate indicator.
- 작성자Ho et al.
- 작성일2024.09.04
- 조회수79
- 2021
Roles of meteorological factors in inter-regional variations of fine and coarse PM concentrations over the ROK

Abstract: This study examined meteorological effects on airborne concentrations of particulate matter (PM) of 25% of PM2.5 variability can be explained by Random Forest regression with only atmospheric variables, compared to little accountability for PM2.5–10. The two most important variables that affect PM2.5 variability are surface air temperature and wind. Transboundary transport controlled by atmospheric factors causes fine PM from northeast and east China to affect PM2.5 variations a day after emissions in the northern-central and southern regions of Korea, respectively; and coarse PM from east China affects PM2.5–10 variations in Korea on the same day. The present results suggest that local governments of regions with high PM concentrations should strengthen regulation policies with a long-term perspective, considering future changes in atmospheric conditions that may cause increases in PM levels. Full title: Roles of meteorological factors in inter-regional variations of fine and coarse PM concentrations over the Republic of Korea
- 작성자Lee et al.
- 작성일2024.09.04
- 조회수80
- 2021
Synoptic conditions controlling the seasonal onset and days of heatwaves over Korea

Abstract: As global warming gets worse, the extreme heat exposure time is expected to increase. Considering that the heatwave damages increased by the accumulation of heat stress, it is important to understand the heatwave onset and number of heatwave days (HWDs). Here, we show that the end of East Asian summer monsoon activity (i.e., Changma retreat date, CRD) could be an indicator in determining the onset of the heatwave, and the barotropic structure induced by the circumglobal and Pacific–Japan teleconnections is a key factor in lengthening the number of HWDs in Korea. The onset of the heatwave is delayed when CRD belated than the climatology late over Korea due to sufficient moisture transportation between the edge of western North Pacific subtropical high and cold polar air mass in July. The number of HWDs from July through August over Korea shows a positive linear relationship with the synoptic stagnation index because the upper-layer anticyclone associated with stagnation is formed around Korea by zonal wave activity. Barotropic anticyclone stabilizes the atmosphere and increases the number of clear sky days, which possibly leads to hot days. Fewer HWDs are observed when there is baroclinic instability due to strong upper-level jet stream and synoptic-scale weather systems move smoothly. By identifying the meteorological mechanism of heatwave occurrence and favorable conditions for sustained hot days over Korea, our results are eventually able to contribute to reducing damages caused by heatwaves.
- 작성자Choi et al.
- 작성일2024.09.04
- 조회수66
- 2021
Systematic bias of WRF-CMAQ PM10 simulations for Seoul, Korea

Abstract: For evaluating the performance of the Korean operational air quality model (Weather Research and Forecasting-Community Multiscale Air Quality), we compared the simulated concentrations of particulate matter with diameters ≤ 10 μm (PM10) against observations in Seoul, Korea for the cold seasons (October through March) of 2015–2018. The simulations yield about 70% hit rate for PM10 concentrations within 10 μg m−3 from the observations. For the 50–90 μg m−3 range, the simulations systematically overestimate the PM10 frequency mainly due to overestimation/underestimation of PM10 concentrations in the moderate-PM10 (30 < PM10 ≤ 60 μg m−3)/high-PM10 (60 < PM10 ≤ 100 μg m−3) range. Considering that the model simulates PM10 transports using input meteorological fields and emissions amounts, 72-h back-trajectories from Seoul (37.51°N, 126.99°E) at the 500 m above ground level are analyzed to investigate the cause of the systematic bias. The 410 days when PM10 concentrations are within the 30–100 μg m−3 range are grouped into three major wind flows: westerly (163 days), northerly (99 days), and northwesterly (148 days). Overestimations of moderate-PM10 days frequently occur for the westerly group associated with a synoptic pattern characterized by calm anticyclonic systems over China and Korea, especially when the emission amounts were overestimated in eastern China, the main PM10 source region for Seoul for the westerly group. Underestimations of high-PM10 days frequently occur for the northerly and northwesterly groups associated with climatological patterns or strong windy cyclonic systems along with some small inflow from underestimated emission in northeastern China. To improve the model performance, statistical models trained for each back-trajectory group along with improved estimations of emission amounts may prove helpful.
- 작성자Hur et al.
- 작성일2024.09.04
- 조회수78
- 2021
Two types of diurnal variations in heavy rainfall during July over Korea

Abstract: This study examined the characteristics of the diurnal variations of heavy rainfall (⩾110 mm in 12 hours) in Korea and the related atmospheric circulation for July from 1980–2020. During the analysis period, two dominant pattens of diurnal variation of the heavy rainfall emerged: all-day heavy rainfall (AD) and morning only heavy rainfall (MO) types. For the AD-type, the heavy rainfall is caused by abundant moisture content in conjunction with active convection in the morning (0000–1200, LST; LST = UTC + 9) and the afternoon hours (1200–2400 LST). These systems are related to the enhanced moisture inflow and upward motion induced by the strengthening of the western North Pacific subtropical high and upper-tropospheric jet. For the MO-type, heavy rainfall occurs mostly in the morning hours; the associated atmospheric patterns are similar to the climatology. We find that the atmospheric pattern related to severe heavy rainfalls in 2020 corresponds to a typical AD-type and resembles the 1991 heavy-rainfall system in its overall synoptic/mesoscale circulations. The present results imply that extremely heavy rainfall episodes in Korea during the 2020 summer may occur again in the future associated with the recurring atmospheric phenomenon related to the heavy rainfall.
- 작성자Park et al.
- 작성일2024.09.04
- 조회수86
- 2021
What caused the extraordinarily hot 2018 summer in Korea?

Abstract: In 2018, heatwaves (HWs), defined as a period of abnormally hot weather with a daily maximum temperature (T_Max) exceeding its 95th percentile threshold for at least 3 consecutive days, were prevalent from June through August, and temperature records exceeded the reference values in many countries over East Asia (EA), including China (CH), Japan (JP), and the Korean Peninsula (KP). Particularly, extreme HWs from July through August lasted for the longest duration of 21.3 days, with T_Max reaching 36.9°C. The highest T_Max recorded since 1907 was 41°C in Hongcheon, located east of Seoul in the KP. Here, we examined the factors that influenced the 2018 HW, and how these relate to the 1994 HW, which was the second longest HW recorded in the KP. The results showed that abnormally strong and northwestward extended anticyclone features observed in July 2018 lasted as a persistent North Pacific anticyclone anomaly until August 2018, centered at the northern KP. These anticyclone features subsequently formed a modon-like blocking, with a cyclonic anomaly in the East China Sea. In August 1994, the North Pacific High (NPH) extended to eastern EA, which broke down the meridional dipole structure and HWs did not persist. The NPH, which persisted until August 2018, was accompanied by a sinking motion, suppression of precipitation, anomalous maximum temperature, weakening of the westerly jet stream, and increased insolation due to clear sky. We found that the prolonged and northwestward-shifted NPH, including the KP, drove the extraordinarily hot 2018 summer in Korea. In addition, low precipitation and massive evapotranspiration with persistent insolation in July 2018 influenced the dry condition at the surface. We suggest that the predictions for the location and duration of the NPH associated with the HWs are required to reduce heat-related mortality and the impact on agriculture because of excessive evapotranspiration.
- 작성자Ha et al.
- 작성일2024.08.22
- 조회수104
- 2020
Simulations of winter Arctic clouds and associated radiation fluxes using different cloud microphysics schemes in the...

Abstract: Arctic cloud simulations of the polar-optimized version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (Polar WRF) were compared with retrievals using the CloudSat and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation measurements. For the period from 1 December 2015 to 31 January 2016, a series of 24- to 48-hr simulations initialized daily at 00 UTC were examined. In particular, two cloud microphysics schemes, the Morrison double moment and the WRF single-moment 6-class (WSM6), were tested. The modeled cloud top heights had a correlation coefficient (r) of 0.69–0.72 with those from satellite retrievals, and a mean bias of less than 400 m. For the mean ice water content profile and mixed-phase cloud occurrence, the Morrison scheme's clouds were in better agreement with satellite retrievals than the WSM6. However, the use of the Morrison scheme resulted in underestimates of outgoing longwave radiation by −11.7 W m-2 compared to satellite observations. The bias was reduced to −0.4 W m-2 with the WSM6 which produced a stronger precipitation rate (by 10%) resulting in a drier and less-cloudy atmosphere. This also leads to the 7-W m-2 mean difference in the surface downward longwave radiation (DLR) between the schemes, which is large enough to explain the spread of the Arctic DLR in the current climate models. However, as the temporal variation in DLR showed good agreement with ground observations (r: 0.68–0.92), it is concluded that the Polar WRF can be useful for studying cloud effects on the winter Arctic surface climate. Full title: Simulations of winter Arctic clouds and associated radiation fluxes using different cloud microphysics schemes in the Polar WRF: Comparisons with CloudSat, CALIPSO, and CERES
- 작성자Cho et al.
- 작성일2024.08.22
- 조회수68
- 2020
Projections of future drought intensity associated with various local greenhouse gas emission scenarios in East Asia

Abstract: Efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are ongoing in many East Asian countries; however, their influences on future drought remain unknown. We analyzed future changes in drought intensity over East Asia using the Representative Concen tration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 and the new two limiting local greenhouse gas emission scenarios in East Asia: National Institute of Environmental Research (NIER)-H sce nario for high emission and NIER-L scenario for low emission. The two scenarios were made by a fully coupled global climate model with prescribed gas boundaries of high and low greenhouse gas emissions from an atmospheric chemistry model re flecting the up-to-date environmental policies of South Korea, China, and Japan. The application of a clustering analysis to the calculated drought index time series identi fied four zonally distributed drought regions in the present-day period (1951–2016). Among these regions, higher latitude regions showed a more rapidly increasing trend in drought intensity than other regions for the present-day period. All future scenarios projected the continuation of this meridional intensification trend of drought until 2100; however, the intensification rates in the NIER-L were much smaller than those in the RCP8.5 and NIER-H scenarios. Our results suggest that reducing greenhouse gas emissions is critical for East Asian countries to alleviate the potential damages of future droughts.
- 작성자Park et al.
- 작성일2024.08.22
- 조회수60
- 2020
Interannual variations of spring drought-prone conditions over three subregions of East Asia and associated...

Abstract: For proactive prevention of water shortage problems, it is important to understand the spatiotemporal variabilities of droughts and their development mechanisms. This study identified an interannual variation of spring drought-prone condition in each region of East Asia (EA)—northern, mid, and southern EA—for the period 1979–2015 by using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and a hierarchical clustering analysis. According to our analyses, spring drought-prone condition in the northern EA region mainly depends on local surface heating and precipitation deficit due to adiabatic compression by a high-pressure anomaly over the region during the preceding winter to spring. The high-pressure anomaly was driven by an upper-level wave train propagating from the Europe related to a positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation. For drought-prone conditions in the mid and the southern EA regions, the local precipitation deficit caused by the negative moisture advection/convergence therein acts as a primary factor. During the preceding winter, the negative moisture advection/convergence anomalies both in mid and southern EA regions were induced by anomalous low-level cyclonic circulations over the western North Pacific related to the La Niña. In spring, however, the moisture condition in the southern EA region was affected by persistent La Niña while that in the mid-EA region was by the negative phase of North Pacific Oscillation. This gap makes the main location of the negative moisture advection/convergence anomalies just slightly different, but considerably alter the region exposed to the drought-prone condition. Full title: Interannual variations of spring drought-prone conditions over three subregions of East Asia and associated large-scale circulations
- 작성자Park et al.
- 작성일2024.08.22
- 조회수64
- 2020
Improved mapping and change detection of the start of the crop growing season in the US Corn Belt from long-term AVHRR..

Abstract: Long-term monitoring of crop phenology is a critical process to understand changes in cropland vegetation dynamics related to climate and human management. During the last four decades, seasonal changes in vegetation have been measured by satellite instruments, the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometers (AVHRRs). However, an acceptable detection of crop phenology has been prevented due to its coarse spatial resolution (~8 km) pixels in which croplands are frequently mixed with non-cropland. This study introduces a novel method for detecting the start of the growing season in cropland (SOSC) from the AVHRR Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to examine the long-term changes in SOSC at the 8-km pixel level across the core cropping regions of the Midwestern United States (the so-called ‘the Corn Belt’) for 1982–2015. The AVHRR-based SOSC was compared with the SOSC retrieved from the pixels covering mostly croplands of the 250-m Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) NDVI. These two satellite-based SOSC shows reasonable correspondence in spatial patterns so that the annual values of the root mean square difference ranges from 3.6 to 7.4 days during the overlapping period of 2008–2015. Also, an acceptable correspondence was found between the interannual variations in the AVHRR SOSCs and in the state-level survey of crop stages. For sowing stages, correlation coefficients ranged from 0.43 to 0.68; for flowering stages those ranged from 0.51 to 0.83. By analyzing long-term SOSC changes with climate factors, we found a strong tendency that warmer pre-season condition is accompanied with earlier SOSC. In addition, larger pre-season precipitation tends to postpone SOSC as strongly as the pre-season temperature affects SOSC in a considerable portion of the core cropland. This study suggests that the postponing of sowing due to larger precipitation, which has rarely been highlighted in previous studies, requires more attentions in order for better understanding of vegetation dynamics in agriculture-climate studies. Full title: Improved mapping and change detection of the start of the crop growing season in the US Corn Belt from long-term AVHRR NDVI
- 작성자Gim et al.
- 작성일2024.08.22
- 조회수77
- 2020
Impact of Chinese air pollutants on a record-breaking PMs episode in South Korea for 11-15 January 2019

Abstract: A record-breaking episode of highly concentrated particulate matter (PM) with diameters ≤ 2.5 μm (PM2.5) and ≤10 μm (PM10) occurred in the Republic of Korea during the period January 11–15, 2019: the hourly PM2.5 (PM10) in Seoul was 188 μg m−3 (262 μg m-3) on January 14. At the Baengnyeong and Socheongcho stations, located in the Yellow Sea between China and Korea, the hourly PM2.5 concentration reached up to 155 μg m-3 and 119.8 μg m-3, respectively, 16−19-h prior to this episode. This and the fact that the maximum PM10 concentration at Baengnyeong was 199 μg m-3 indicated a westerly transport of air pollutants. Satellite observations and 72-h back trajectory analysis clearly indicate that air pollutants from China flowed into Korea via the westerlies. According to contribution analysis using particulate matter source apportionment technology in the Comprehensive Air-quality Model with extension, air pollutants originating from northeastern China including Hebei and Shandong provinces were largely linked to the present record-breaking high concentration event in Seoul. This study will elucidate the mechanism of transboundary transport of air pollutants and help East Asian countries cooperate on air quality management.
- 작성자Oh et al.
- 작성일2024.08.22
- 조회수55
- 2020