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국제학술지

공지 (2024. 9. 4.)

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Tropical cyclone signals on rainfall distribution during strong vs. weak Changma/Baiu years

Abstract: The spatiotemporal distribution of summer rainfall is diverse in origin, namely tropical cyclones (TCs) and quasi-stationary monsoon frontal systems. Here, the contribution of TCs to summer rainfall is singled out for the years of strong vs. weak Changma/Baiu, which is represented by the leading mode of the variability in total rainfall over East Asia (20°–45°N, 105°–150°E) during the summers (July and August) of 1979–2014. Analyzing rain gauge based rainfall and TC best track data indicates that the difference in TC-induced rainfall between strong and weak Changma/Baiu years exhibits distinctive subseasonal evolution from that in non-TC-induced rainfall. A deficit in TC-induced rainfall is mainly observed over eastern China and Taiwan, where a surplus in non-TC-induced rainfall exists. This opposite relationship between the difference in TC-induced and non-TC-induced rainfalls, which is associated with westward extensions of the subtropical high and associated westerlies over the East China Sea, implies that the variations of TC-induced rainfall and non-TC-induced rainfall partly offset each other in certain regions of East Asia. For heavy rainfall (> 50 mm day-1), similar features are observed in the whole East Asia region. The variability of total heavy rainfall is dominated by non-TC-induced rainfall, except for the Yangtze River Valley where the variability of TC-induced rainfall cancels out that of non-TC-induced rainfall.
- 작성자Cheung et al.
- 작성일2024.08.22
- 조회수15
- 2018
The relationship between tropical cyclone rainfall area and environmental conditions over the subtropical oceans

Abstract: In this study, the variation of tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall area over the subtropical oceans is investigated using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission precipitation data collected from 1998 to 2014, with a focus on its relationship with environmental conditions. In the subtropics, higher moving speed and larger vertical wind shear significantly contribute to an increase in TC rainfall area by making horizontal rainfall distribution more asymmetric, while sea surface temperature rarely affects the fluctuation of TC rainfall area. This relationship between TC rainfall area and environmental conditions in the subtropics is almost opposite to that in the tropics. It is suggested that, in the subtropics, unlike the tropics, dynamic environmental conditions are likely more crucial to varying TC rainfall area than thermodynamic environmental ones.
- 작성자Kim et al.
- 작성일2024.08.22
- 조회수20
- 2018
Slowdown of spring green-up advancements in boreal forests

Abstract: There is a consensus that the spring phenology of deciduous forests is advancing in response to global warming. Since the late 1990s, however, this tendency of spring phenology advancement has been weakened in over 60% of boreal forests, particularly in Siberia (−0.58 day yr-1 for 1982–1997 vs. −0.17 day yr-1 for 1982–2013) and northwestern North America (NWNA; −0.42 day yr-1 for 1982–1997 vs. 0.07 day yr-1 for 1982–2013). This study investigated the major factor in the weakening trends in the advancement of the start of the growing season (SOS) based on the satellite-observed normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) in two regions by quantifying the effects of four climatic fields—winter duration (WD; the number of freezing days), pre-season temperature (PT; accumulated temperature from late winter to early spring), green-up temperature (GT; accumulated temperature around the green-up date), and pre-season precipitation (PR; accumulated precipitation before the green-up date)—on changes in the spring green-up trend. The GT explained the majority of the slowdown in the SOS trends in recent decades. In Siberia, the GT increases contributed to the advancement of the SOS during the 1980s and 1990s; however, the GT increase reduced to less than half of these periods resulting in a slowdown of the SOS advancing trend since the early 2000s. In NWNA, GT increases and WD shortening drove the SOS advancement until the late 1990s; however, both effects have been diminished to near zero to result in no further SOS advancements. This study demonstrates that the recent slowdown of the SOS advancing trends over Siberia and NWNA was largely attributed to the weakening of the warming trends, rather than the sensitivity changes of spring phenology to climate variables. This study suggests that the natural climate variability strongly affects the decadal variations in the boreal forest spring phenology.
- 작성자Park et al.
- 작성일2024.08.22
- 조회수9
- 2018
Slow decreasing tendency of fine particles compared to coarse particles associated with recent hot summers in Seoul...

Abstract: In Seoul, South Korea, particulate matters (PMs) significantly decreased for the period 2005–2015 in concert with the implementation of air pollution reduction policies. This study reveals that PM with a diameter smaller than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) has a slower decreasing tendency than PM in the 2.5–10-μm range (PM2.5-10) during summer and that this discrepancy is attributable to the large increase in the summer surface air temperature for the analysis period (0.13°C year-1). During the daytime, especially in the afternoon when the hourly surface air temperature and its increasing rate are high, the difference between the decreasing rates of PM2.5 and PM2.5-10 is pronounced. The slower decrease in PM2.5 compared to PM2.5-10 likely results from the secondary PM2.5 formation being accelerated by the increase in the surface air temperature. Other atmospheric variables that can affect concentrations of PMs, such as insolation, relative humidity, precipitation, wind speed, and sea-level pressure, do not show a meaningful relationship with the discrepancy in the decreasing tendency between the two PMs. Our finding emphasizes the necessity of continuous monitoring and analysis of long-term variability in concentrations of PMs and related meteorological conditions, and the independent establishment of reduction policies for PM2.5 and PM2.5-10 to prepare for anthropogenic climate change and the subsequent air quality change. Full title: Slow decreasing tendency of fine particles compared to coarse particles associated with recent hot summers in Seoul, Korea
- 작성자Lee et al.
- 작성일2024.08.22
- 조회수9
- 2018
Possible relationship of weakened Aleutian Low and air quality improvement in Seoul, South Korea

Abstract: Cold-season air quality in Seoul, South Korea, has been improved noticeably between 2001 and 2015 with a near-50% decrease in the mean concentration of particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters ≤10 μm (PM10). Like the change in mean concentration, the occurrence frequency and intensity of the extreme-high-PM10 episodes exceeding 100 μg m-3 has significantly decreased as well. In addition to the multilateral efforts of the South Korean government to reduce air pollutant emissions, this study proposes that large-scale circulation changes also could have contributed to the air quality improvements. Specifically, the recent weakening of the Aleutian low may have intensified the tropospheric westerlies around the Korean Peninsula, resulting in a shorter residence time of particulate matter over South Korea. Thus, despite constant governmental effort to reduce pollutant emissions, the improvement in air quality over South Korea may be delayed if the Aleutian low recovers its past strength in the future. This study emphasizes the importance of the meteorological field in determining the air quality over South Korea.
- 작성자Oh et al.
- 작성일2024.08.22
- 조회수14
- 2018
Keeping global warming within 1.5 °C constrains emergence of aridification

Abstract: Aridity—the ratio of atmospheric water supply (precipitation; P) to demand (potential evapotranspiration; PET)—is projected to decrease (that is, areas will become drier) as a consequence of anthropogenic climate change, exacerbating land degradation and desertification. However, the timing of significant aridification relative to natural variability—defined here as the time of emergence for aridification (ToEA)—is unknown, despite its importance in designing and implementing mitigation policies. Here we estimate ToEA from projections of 27 global climate models (GCMs) under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, and in doing so, identify where emergence occurs before global mean warming reaches 1.5 °C and 2 °C above the pre-industrial level. On the basis of the ensemble median ToEA for each grid cell, aridification emerges over 32% (RCP4.5) and 24% (RCP8.5) of the total land surface before the ensemble median of global mean temperature change reaches 2 °C in each scenario. Moreover, ToEA is avoided in about two-thirds of the above regions if the maximum global warming level is limited to 1.5 °C. Early action for accomplishing the 1.5 °C temperature goal can therefore markedly reduce the likelihood that large regions will face substantial aridification and related impacts.
- 작성자Park et al.
- 작성일2024.08.22
- 조회수14
- 2018
Influence of winter precipitation on spring phenology in boreal forests

Abstract: Understanding the variations in spring vegetation phenology associated with preseason climate conditions can significantly improve our knowledge on ecosystem dynamics and biosphere–atmosphere interactions. Recent studies have shown that wet winters can delay the start date of the vegetation growing season (SOS) in the high latitudes. However, associated underlying mechanisms remain unclear due to the lack of observation sites as well as complex interactions between various climate and ecosystem variables. In this study, the impact of winter precipitation on year-to-year variations of the SOS in boreal forests from 1982 to 2005 was investigated. Two experiments were performed using the Community Land Model version 4.5. In the control experiment, observed precipitation was used; in the sensitivity experiment, precipitation in the year 1982 was repeated throughout the period. The SOS in the control experiment shows high temporal correlations with the SOS estimated from the satellite-retrieved leaf area index, indicating that the land model is capable of simulating realistic response of vegetation to interannual climate variability. The effects of winter precipitation on the SOS are examined by comparing the two model experiments for wet- and dry winters. After wet winters, the SOS was delayed by 2.7 days over 70.1% of the boreal forests than after dry winters; this accounts for 42.5% of the interannual variation in the SOS. The SOS delay is related to the decrease in the growing degree-days (GDD) based on soil temperatures, suggesting that the effects of heat exposure on vegetation growth is strongly modulated by winter precipitation. The GDD decrease is related to both the increase in snowmelt heat flux and reduced absorption of solar radiation, which are proportional to the amount of winter precipitation and the ratio of short plants to tall trees, respectively. Our results provide a physical basis for the winter precipitation–SOS relationship, suggesting that an increase in winter precipitation can alleviate strong advancing trends in spring vegetation growth in conjunction with global warming even for temperature-limited ecosystems.
- 작성자Yun et al.
- 작성일2024.08.22
- 조회수7
- 2018
Impact of urbanization on spring and autumn phenology of deciduous trees in the Seoul Capital Area, South Korea

Abstract: Urbanization exerts anthropogenic forcing that affects regional climate and ecosystems. With increasing levels of urbanization associated with urban population growth in the near future, understanding of the impact of urbanization on terrestrial ecosystems is important for predicting future environmental changes. This study evaluates the impact of urbanization on spring and autumn phenology by addressing the relationship between population density and phenology at nine stations in the Seoul Capital Area (SCA), South Korea during 1991–2010. We analyze the spring budburst dates for the six species (Prunus mume, Forsythia koreana, Rhododendron mucronulatum, Prunus yedoensis, Prunus persica, and Prunus pyrifolia) and the leaf coloring date for the two species (Ginkgo biloba and Acer palmatum). Regardless of species, the density of the urban population shows significant negative (positive) relationships with spring (autumn) phenology. In the SCA, urban population increases are related to earlier spring budburst up to 13 days and delayed leaf coloring up to 15 days. The most apparent spring budburst sensitivity is observed in Prunus mume, whereas the most dominant autumn leaf coloring sensitivity is observed in Acer palmatum. The relationship between population density and phenology is supported by the difference in nocturnal temperatures between stations which varies with the population density. Our results suggest that, in addition to global warming, future population growth should be considered in ecosystem assessments of human-induced environmental changes.
- 작성자Jeong et al.
- 작성일2024.08.22
- 조회수9
- 2018
Changes in cold surge occurrence over East Asia in the future: Role of thermal structure

Abstract: The occurrence of wintertime cold surges (CSs) over East Asia is largely controlled by the surface air temperature (SAT) distribution at high latitudes and thermal advection in the lower troposphere. The thermodynamic background state over northeastern Asia is associated with the strength of the East Asian winter monsoon and the variation of Arctic Oscillation. This study assesses the importance of the SAT structure with thermal advection in determining the frequency of CS occurrences over East Asia through the analysis of nine atmosphere–ocean coupled global climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. The historical simulations can reproduce the observed typical characteristics of CS development. On the basis of this model performance, ensemble-averaged future simulations under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 project a reduction in CS frequency by 1.1 yr-1 in the late 21st century (2065–2095) compared to the present-day period (1975–2005). The major reason for less frequent CSs in the future is the weakened cold advection, caused by notable SAT warming over the northern part of East Asia. These results suggest that changes in the meridional SAT structure and the associated changes in thermal advection would play a more substantial role than local warming in determining future changes in the frequency of CS occurrences over East Asia.
- 작성자Heo et al.
- 작성일2024.08.22
- 조회수9
- 2018
Near-future prediction of tropical cyclone activity over the North Atlantic

Abstract: Prediction of tropical cyclone (TC) activity is essential to better prepare for and mitigate TC-induced disasters. Although many studies have attempted to predict TC activity on various time scales, very few have focused on near-future predictions. Here a decrease in seasonal TC activity over the North Atlantic (NA) for 2016–30 is shown using a track-pattern-based TC prediction model. The TC model is forced by long-term coupled simulations initialized using reanalysis data. Unfavorable conditions for TC development including strengthened vertical wind shear, enhanced low-level anticyclonic flow, and cooled sea surface temperature (SST) over the tropical NA are found in the simulations. Most of the environmental changes are attributable to cooling of the NA basinwide SST (NASST) and more frequent El Niño episodes in the near future. The consistent NASST warming trend in the projections from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) suggests that natural variability is more dominant than anthropogenic forcing over the NA in the near-future period.
- 작성자Choi et al.
- 작성일2024.08.22
- 조회수8
- 2017