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국제학술지

공지 (2026. 6. 1.)

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Does El Niño-Southern Oscillation affect the precipitation in Korea on seasonal time scales?

A number of studies in the past two decades have attempted to find the relationship between the precipitation in Korea and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on various time scales. Comprehensive analyses of station precipitation data in Korea for the 61-year period, 1954-2014, in this study show that the effects of ENSO on the seasonal precipitation in Korea are practically negligible. The correlation between summer precipitation and ENSO is insignificant regardless of the intensity, type (e.g., eastern-Pacific or central-Pacific), and stage (e.g., developing, mature, or decaying) of ENSO. Somewhat meaningful correlation between ENSO and precipitation in Korea occurs only in the ENSO-developing fall. Because summer rainfall accounts for over half of the annual total and fall is a dry season in Korea, the overall effects of ENSO on precipitation in Korea are practically nonexistent.
- 작성자Ho et al.
- 작성일2024.08.28
- 조회수347
- 2016
A track pattern–based seasonal prediction of tropical cyclone activity over the North Atlantic

A seasonal prediction model of tropical cyclone (TC) activities for the period August-October over the North Atlantic (NA) has been developed on the basis of TC track patterns. Using the fuzzy c-means method, a total of 432 TCs in the period 1965-2012 are categorized into the following four groups: 1) TCs off the East Coast of the United States, 2) TCs over the Gulf of Mexico, 3) TCs that recurve into the open oceans of the central NA, and 4) TCs that move westward in the southern NA. The model is applied to predict the four TC groups separately in conjunction with global climate forecasts from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2). By adding the distributions of the four TC tracks with pre-calculated weighting factors, this seasonal TC forecast model provides the spatial distribution of TC activities over the entire NA basin. Multiple forecasts initialized in six consecutive months from February to July are generated at monthly intervals to examine the applicability of this model in operational TC forecasting. Cross-validations of individual forecasts show that the model can reasonably predict the observed TC frequencies over NA at the 99% confidence level. The model shows a stable spatial prediction skill, proving its advantage for forecasting regional TC activities several months in advance. In particular, the model can generate reliable information on regional TC counts in the near-coastal regions as well as in entire NA basin.
- 작성자Choi et al.
- 작성일2024.08.28
- 조회수155
- 2016
Airborne measurements of high pollutant concentration events in the free troposphere over the West Coast

Aircrafts enable the direct measurement of chemical components in the free troposphere (FT). This study employed airborne measurements to examine the occurrences of high concentrations of SO2 and NOx in the FT over the coastal region west of the Seoul metropolitan area, South Korea. The data from a long-term (1997-2011) airborne measurement campaign were used to determine the meteorological conditions favorable for carrying these pollutants into the Seoul area. The back trajectory analyses of 21 instances of high FT pollutant concentration events showed ascending patterns from the major pollutant sources, mainly the industrial complexes in eastern China, in 9 instances and passing patterns in 12 instances. In the ascending instances, developing low-pressure systems over the source regions provide favorable conditions to uplift air pollutants from the surface into the FT. In the passing instances, an anomalous low-pressure system near the surface prevented airflows from descending into the boundary layer and upper-level anticyclonic systems helped to keep the ascending airflows in the FT. This study proposes the basic mechanisms for predicting air quality in the Seoul area, considering that air pollutants in the FT often entrain into the boundary layer to increase local concentrations.
- 작성자Lee et al.
- 작성일2024.08.28
- 조회수151
- 2016
Spatial and temporal changes in leaf coloring date of Acer palmatum and Ginkgo biloba in response to temperature...

Abstract: Understanding shifts in autumn phenology associated with climate changes is critical for preserving forest ecosystems. This study examines the changes in the leaf coloring date (LCD) of two temperate deciduous tree species, Acer palmatum (Acer) and Ginkgo biloba (Ginkgo), in response to surface air temperature (Ts) changes at 54 stations of South Korea for the period 1989–2007. The variations of Acer and Ginkgo in South Korea are very similar: they show the same mean LCD of 295th day of the year and delays of about 0.45 days year-1 during the observation period. The delaying trend is closely correlated (correlation coefficient > 0.77) with increases in Ts in mid-autumn by 2.8 days °C-1. It is noted that the LCD delaying and temperature sensitivity (days °C-1) for both tree species show negligible dependences on latitudes and elevations. Given the significant LCD-Ts relation, we project LCD changes for 2016–35 and 2046–65 using a process-based model forced by temperature from climate model simulation. The projections indicate that the mean LCD would be further delayed by 3.2 (3.7) days in 2016–35 (2046–65) due to mid-autumn Ts increases. This study suggests that the mid-autumn warming is largely responsible for the observed LCD changes in South Korea and will intensify the delaying trends in the future. Full title: Spatial and temporal changes in leaf coloring date of Acer palmatum and Ginkgo biloba in response to temperature increases in South Korea
- 작성자Park et al.
- 작성일2024.08.22
- 조회수199
- 2017
Tropical Cyclone Mekkhala's (2008) Formation over the South China Sea: Mesoscale, Synoptic-scale and Large-scale...

Tropical cyclone formation close to the coastline of the Asian continent presents a significant threat to heavily populated coastal countries. A case study of Tropical Storm Mekkhala (2008) that developed off the coast of Vietnam is presented using the high-resolution analyses of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts/Year of Tropical Convection and multiple satellite observations. The authors have analyzed contributions to the formation from large-scale intraseasonal variability, synoptic perturbations, and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). Within a large-scale westerly wind burst (WWB) associated with the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), synoptic perturbations generated by two preceding tropical cyclones initiated the pre-Mekkhala low-level vortex over the Philippine Sea. Typhoon Hagupit produced a synoptic-scale wave train that contributed to the development of Jangmi, but likely suppressed the Mekkhala formation. The low-level vortex of the pre-Mekkhala disturbance was then initiated in a confluent zone between northeasterlies in advance of Typhoon Jangmi and the WWB. A key contribution to the development of Mekkhala was from diurnally varying MCSs that were invigorated in the WWB. The oceanic MCSs, which typically develop off the west coast of the Philippines in the morning and dissipate in the afternoon, were prolonged beyond the regular diurnal cycle. A combination with the MCSs developing downstream of the Philippines led to the critical structure change of the oceanic convective cluster, which implies the critical role of mesoscale processes. Therefore, the diurnally varying mesoscale convective processes over both the ocean and land are shown to have an essential role in the formation of Mekkhala in conjunction with large-scale MJO and the synoptic-scale TC influences.
- 작성자Park et al.
- 작성일2024.08.28
- 조회수214
- 2015
The effects of ENSO under negative AO phase on spring dust activity over northern China: An observational investigation

The effects of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) under negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) phase on the Asian dust activity are investigated for springs of the period 1961–2002. The spring dust index (DI) describing the monthly frequencies of three types of dust events (e.g. dust storm, blowing dust, and floating dust) exhibits a significant increase in the years of negative AO phase (hereafter AO−) and El Niño, compared with that in the years of AO− and La Niña. Averaged over all observation stations, the spring DI (49.7) during the El Niño/AO− years is higher by 11.4% or 29.8% than that (38.3) during the La Niña/AO− years. We suggest possible physical mechanism that the anomalous large-scale environments associated with AO− and El Niño are more effective to provide favourable conditions to enhance Asian dust activity. During the El Niño/AO− years, meridional gradients of pressure and temperature over the dust source regions are significantly enhanced by decreasing the geopotential height and warming air temperature that originated from the north and south of source regions, respectively, under the influence of AO− and El Niño. These also intensify the zonal wind shear and atmospheric baroclinicity, thereby producing enhanced cyclogenesis and dust occurrences over the major source regions. At the same time, dust transport paths with the stronger westerly winds are developed by the combined constraints of anomalous cyclone over the Siberia and the Mongolia and anomalous anticyclone over the western North Pacific, and thus strengthen dust transport to the downwind regions.
- 작성자Lee et al.
- 작성일2024.08.28
- 조회수227
- 2015
Retrieval of outgoing longwave radiation from COMS narrowband infrared imagery

Hourly outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) from the geostationary satellite Communication Oceanography Meteorological Satellite (COMS) has been retrieved since June 2010. The COMS OLR retrieval algorithms are based on regression analyses of radiative transfer simulations for spectral functions of COMS infrared channels. This study documents the accuracies of OLRs for future climate applications by making an intercomparison of four OLRs from one single-channel algorithm (OLR12.0 using the 12.0 μm channel) and three multiple-channel algorithms (OLR10.8+12.0 using the 10.8 and 12.0 μm channels; OLR6.7+10.8 using the 6.7 and 10.8 μm channels; and OLRAll using the 6.7, 10.8, and 12.0 μm channels). The COMS OLRs from these algorithms were validated with direct measurements of OLR from a broadband radiometer of the Clouds and Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) over the full COMS field of view [roughly (50°S–50°N, 70°–170°E)] during April 2011. Validation results show that the root-mean-square errors of COMS OLRs are 5–7 W m−2, which indicates good agreement with CERES OLR over the vast domain. OLR6.7+10.8 and OLRAll have much smaller errors (∼6 W m−2) than OLR12.0 and OLR10.8+12.0 (∼8 W m−2). Moreover, the small errors of OLR6.7+10.8 and OLRAll are systematic and can be readily reduced through additional mean bias correction and/or radiance calibration. These results indicate a noteworthy role of the 6.7 μm water vapor absorption channel in improving the accuracy of the OLRs. The dependence of the accuracy of COMS OLRs on various surface, atmospheric, and observational conditions is also discussed.
- 작성자Park et al.
- 작성일2024.08.28
- 조회수174
- 2015
Regional variations in potential plant habitat changes in response to multiple global warming scenarios

This study examines the impacts of global warming on the timing of plant habitat changes in the twenty-first century using climate scenarios from multiple global climate models (GCMs). The plant habitat changes are predicted by driving the bioclimate rule in a dynamic global vegetation model using the climate projections from 16 coupled GCMs. The timing of plant habitat changes is estimated by the first occurrence of specified fractional changes (10%, 20%, and 30%). All future projections are categorized into three groups by the magnitude of the projected global-mean land surface temperature changes: low (3.5 K) warming. During the course of the twenty-first century, dominant plant habitat changes are projected in ecologically transitional (i.e., from tropical to temperate and temperate to boreal) regions. The timing of plant habitat changes varies substantially according to regions. In the low-warming group, habitat changes of 10% in southern Africa occur in 2028, earlier than in the Americas by more than 70 yr. Differences in the timing between regions increase with the increase in warming and fractional threshold. In the subtropics, fast plant habitat changes are projected for the Asia and Africa regions, where countries of relatively small gross domestic product (GDP) per capita are concentrated. Ecosystems in these regions will be more vulnerable to global warming, because countries of low economic power lack the capability to deal with the warming-induced habitat changes. Thus, it is important to establish international collaboration via which developed countries provide assistance to mitigate the impacts of global warming.
- 작성자Park et al.
- 작성일2024.08.28
- 조회수253
- 2015
Quiescence of Asian dust events in South Korea and Japan during 2012 spring: Dust outbreaks and transports

This study examined the quiescence of Asian dust events in South Korea and Japan during the spring of 2012, presenting a synoptic characterization and suggesting possible causes. Synoptic observation reports from the two countries confirmed that spring 2012 had the lowest number of dust events in 2000–2012. The monthly dust frequency (DF) in March 2012 over the dust source regions, i.e., deserts in northern China and Mongolia, indicated a significant decrease compared to the 12 year (2000–2011) March climatology. The DF in April 2012 was comparable to the 12 year climatology values, but in May 2012 it was slightly lower. The daily Ozone Monitoring Instrument Aerosol Index and the Navy Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System simulations revealed stagnant dust movement in March and May 2012. Anomalous anticyclones north of the source regions decreased the dust outbreaks and enhanced the southeasterly winds, resulting in few dust events over the downwind countries (i.e., South Korea and Japan). By contrast, in April 2012, a strong anomalous cyclone east of Lake Baikal slightly increased the dust outbreaks over northeastern China. However, the major dust outbreaks were not transported downwind because of exceptional dust pathways, i.e., the southeastward pathway of dust transport was unusually blocked by the expansion of an anomalous anticyclonic circulation over the Sea of Okhotsk, with dust being transported northeast.
- 작성자Lee et al.
- 작성일2024.08.28
- 조회수149
- 2015
Projection of summertime ozone concentration over East Asia under multiple IPCC SRES emission scenarios

We have developed the Integrated Climate and Air Quality Modeling System (ICAMS) through the one-way nesting of global–regional models to examine the changes in the surface ozone concentrations over East Asia under future climate scenarios. Model simulations have been conducted for the present period of 1996–2005 to evaluate the performance of ICAMS. The simulated surface ozone concentrations reproduced the observed monthly mean concentrations at sites in East Asia with high R2 values (0.4–0.9), indicating a successful simulation to capture both spatial and temporal variability. We then performed several model simulations with the six IPCC SRES scenarios (A2, A1B, A1FI, A1T, B1, and B2) for the next three periods, 2016–2025 (the 2020s), 2046–2055 (the 2050s), and 2091–2100 (the 2090s). The model results show that the projected changes of the annual daily mean maximum eight-hour (DM8H) surface ozone concentrations in summertime for East Asia are in the range of 2–8 ppb, −3 to 8 ppb, and −7 to 9 ppb for the 2020s, the 2050s, and the 2090s, respectively, and are primarily determined based on the emission changes of NOx and NMVOC. The maximum increases in the annual DM8H surface ozone and high-ozone events occur in the 2020s for all scenarios except for A2, implying that the air quality over East Asia is likely to get worse in the near future period (the 2020s) than in the far future periods (the 2050s and the 2090s). The changes in the future environment based on IPCC SRES scenarios would also influence the change in the occurrences of high-concentrations events more greatly than that of the annual DM8H surface ozone concentrations. Sensitivity simulations show that the emissions increase is the key factor in determining future regional surface ozone concentrations in the case of a developing country, China, whereas a developed country, Japan would be influenced more greatly by effects of the regional climate change than the increase in emissions.
- 작성자Lee et al.
- 작성일2024.08.28
- 조회수156
- 2015